What is the current probability for "What will be Auston Matthews's next team?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 193 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "What will be Auston Matthews's next team?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1162.1% and 30.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "What will be Auston Matthews's next team?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that What will be Auston Matthews's next team?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing Matthews's next team as Dallas at just 14¢ compared to 31¢ on Polymarket—a 121% spread that suggests meaningful disagreement or liquidity constraints.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 0/14¢·Spread 14¢·Vol $0·OI $33.68·Closes Nov 1, 2026·193d remaining

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-DAL

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing Matthews's next team as Dallas at just 14¢ compared to 31¢ on Polymarket—a 121% spread that suggests meaningful disagreement or liquidity constraints. The 14¢ price implies an extraordinarily high 1147% yield on a Yes resolution, but this is heavily discounted by minimal liquidity ($33.68 open interest) and a concerning 6/10 cliff risk index, indicating potential resolution ambiguity around what constitutes his "next team." With 196 days to expiry and near-zero trading volume, this appears to be a low-confidence, illiquid market where the extreme yield reflects scarcity premium rather than genuine probability assessment.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 43¢(Δ -29¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.85IY 248.5%Close-time delta 43h

Resolution rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Dallas Stars before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1162.1%

IY (No) 30.8%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 6

Overround 1.5%

LAS 1.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1162.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	30.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:43:13 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-DAL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →