What will be Auston Matthews's next team?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that What will be Auston Matthews's next team?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 78¢ spread, suggesting no active trading and potentially stale pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 78¢ spread, suggesting no active trading and potentially stale pricing. The 0¢ Yes price implies an implausibly low 0% probability that Matthews stays with Toronto or retires within 198 days, yet the 736.8% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the market is pricing in substantial upside if that outcome occurs—a disconnect typical of thin, speculative markets. With nearly two years until expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this contract carries meaningful event risk, though the neutral regime score suggests current market conditions aren't driving directional conviction.
Resolution rules
If Auston Matthews's next team is the Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-TOR yes 100