Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 39%, Polymarket at 22% — a 17pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
39%
13 contracts
Polymarket
22%
6 contracts
Cross-venue gap
17pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
19 contracts
Top contract
31¢
$3K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 39¢ · Polymarket 22¢ · 17pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (22¢, 6 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (39¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Measles cases in U.S. in 2026” vs “Will there be more than”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑3k
0xe815a6…f3e5
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑10k
0x1d9160…8827
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑4k
0x15a764…58c7
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑5k
0xd15f77…e9ea
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑7.5k
0xfa3dc3…a1a7
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑12.5k
0xf84585…dc09
Cluster 2
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 4000
KXMEASLES-26-4000
Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 6000
KXMEASLES-26-6000
Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 8000
KXMEASLES-26-8000
Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 10000
KXMEASLES-26-10000
Cluster 3
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 3
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 365ㅤ?: Above 365ㅤ
KXUSGASCPI-26MAY12-T365
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 360ㅤ?: Above 360ㅤ
KXUSGASCPI-26MAY12-T360
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 350ㅤ?: Above 350ㅤ
KXUSGASCPI-26MAY12-T350
Cluster 4
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 304.0ㅤ?: Above 304.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T304.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 308.0ㅤ?: Above 308.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T308.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?: Above 288.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T288.0
Cluster 5
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration
Cluster 6
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.72ㅤ
What moved the line
- Apr 27Above 350ㅤ↑23pp47→70¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 304.0ㅤ?: Above 304.0ㅤ↑14pp47→61¢ · Kalshi
- May 1↑3k↓12pp69→57¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Above 350ㅤ↑8pp71→79¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Above 6000↓7pp19→12¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.