Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$551
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
919 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will there be more than” vs “What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 6000
KXMEASLES-26-6000
Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 4000
KXMEASLES-26-4000
Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 8000
KXMEASLES-26-8000
Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 10000
KXMEASLES-26-10000
Cluster 2
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration
Analysis
This market estimates a 29% probability that the U.S. will record at least 1,800 measles cases by April 30, 2026. The probability reflects the balance between factors that could drive case increases (vaccination coverage gaps, imported cases from ongoing global outbreaks) and those limiting spread (existing immunity levels, public health response capacity). The primary uncertainty centers on vaccination rates among susceptible populations and whether any outbreaks accelerate in the coming months. The CDC's weekly case reporting provides the most direct evidence for resolution, with the April 30 deadline now less than one year away. Current measles activity levels relative to historical baselines will be critical—the U.S. reported 127 cases in 2024, so reaching 1,800 would require a substantial increase from recent trends.
- ›U.S. measles vaccination coverage rates and immunity levels in susceptible age groups
- ›Number of measles cases imported or detected in early 2026 relative to historical seasonal patterns
- ›Vaccination uptake trends following any detected outbreaks or public health messaging campaigns
- ›Global measles activity and international travel patterns affecting case importation risk
- ›Public health response effectiveness and outbreak containment speed in any identified clusters
What moved the line
- Jun 23Above 4000↓3pp36→33¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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