What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration
Leader sits at 94% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 76%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 2000
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
76¢
At least 2500
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$287
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
862 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 5000
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-5000
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 2000
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-2000
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 4500
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-4500
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 4000
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-4000
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 3500
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-3500
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 3000
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-3000
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 2500
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-2500
Analysis
This market estimates an 86% probability that measles cases will average at least 2,000 annually during the Trump Administration (2025-2029). Measles outbreaks depend primarily on vaccination rates and disease importation, both of which fluctuate based on public health policy, vaccine confidence, and international travel patterns. The market currently reflects relatively high confidence in sustained elevated case counts compared to recent pre-pandemic baselines. Resolution will depend on CDC surveillance data compiled across the full administration term. Key uncertainties include whether vaccination uptake trends continue declining, whether outbreak clusters occur in vulnerable populations, and how health authorities respond to any major cases or regional transmission events.
- ›CDC measles case counts and vaccination coverage rates reported quarterly—lower vaccination rates typically precede case increases
- ›Prevalence of vaccine hesitancy messaging and policy changes affecting routine immunization programs during the administration
- ›International measles importation events and travel patterns, particularly from high-prevalence regions
- ›Occurrence and magnitude of any regional outbreak clusters that could trigger public response or policy shifts
- ›Year-over-year comparison to 2024 baseline (preliminary data shows ~260-600 U.S. cases), with 2,000+ annual average representing substantial increase
What moved the line
- Aug 18At least 4500↑7pp25→32¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17At least 4500↓6pp31→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22At least 5000↓5pp37→32¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19At least 3500↑5pp41→46¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22At least 4500↑5pp31→36¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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