What is the current probability for "When will Discord IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 60¢ (60% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Discord IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 95.7% and 215.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Discord IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Discord IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that When will Discord IPO?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 60% probability of Discord IPO by end-2026, but the zero 24-hour volume and thin $1,163 open interest suggest minimal conviction and liquidity concerns.

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60¢

Bid/Ask 60/63¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $1,098·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXIPODISCORD-27JAN01

7-day price105 snapshots · 2 regime

61¢60¢ current

Apr 815¢Apr 16

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing a 60% probability of Discord IPO by end-2026, but the zero 24-hour volume and thin $1,163 open interest suggest minimal conviction and liquidity concerns. The No side offers an outsized 211.2% implied yield versus 93.9% for Yes, indicating asymmetric risk pricing that may reflect skepticism about Discord's near-term public market plans despite the majority probability. With 259 days to expiration and a modest 5¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market.

Resolution rules

If Discord confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 95.7%

IY (No) 215.3%

Adj IY 108%

CRI 2

Overround 4.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	95.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	215.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	108%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:15:41 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPODISCORD-27JAN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →