Who will join MLS in the summer
Cristiano Ronaldo is priced at 93¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 86¢ spread. This outcome ranks #14 of 15 inside Who will join MLS in the summer.
Price history
93¢ current
+84¢Contract brief
If Cristiano Ronaldo's next club is any team in the MLS before Sep 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Cristiano Ronaldo
Rank
#14 of 15
Leader
Casemiro 91¢
Range
2¢-91¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-CRONALDO
Jul 16, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
86¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#14 of 15
15 outcomes · Who will join MLS in the summer
Closes
Sep 10, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Cristiano Ronaldo's next club is any team in the MLS before Sep 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 10, 2026
Identifier
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-CRONALDO
Event family
Who will join MLS in the summer.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Casemiro 91¢
Current share
—
Casemiro
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-CASEMIRO
Mohamed Salah
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-MSALAH
Lucas Moura
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-LMOURA
Neymar
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-NEYMAR
Francesco Acerbi
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-FACERBI
Sergio Ramos
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-SRAMOS
Harry Kane
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-HKANE
Manuel Neuer
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-MNEUER
Angel Di Maria
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-ADIMARIA
Luka Modric
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-LMODRIC
Karim Benzema
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-KBENZEMA
Keylor Navas
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-KNAVAS
Yann Sommer
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-YSOMMER
Cristiano Ronaldo
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-CRONALDO
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
kalshi · KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-HMKHITARYAN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 93% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.