Who will join MLS in the summer
Leader sits at 80% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Casemiro
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Mohamed Salah
Spread
47pp
contested
24h volume
$354
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 10, 2026
124 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will join MLS in the summer
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Casemiro
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-CASEMIRO
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Mohamed Salah
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-MSALAH
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Sergio Ramos
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-SRAMOS
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Yann Sommer
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-YSOMMER
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Karim Benzema
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-KBENZEMA
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Henrikh Mkhitaryan
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-HMKHITARYAN
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Angel Di Maria
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-ADIMARIA
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Francesco Acerbi
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-FACERBI
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Manuel Neuer
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-MNEUER
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Luka Modric
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-LMODRIC
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Robert Lewandowski
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-RLEWANDOWSKI
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Cristiano Ronaldo
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-CRONALDO
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Lucas Moura
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-LMOURA
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Keylor Navas
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-KNAVAS
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Neymar
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-NEYMAR
Analysis
The 64% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Casemiro will join Major League Soccer this summer, significantly ahead of alternative outcomes at 31%. This high confidence likely stems from recent transfer activity in the soccer market, reported interest from MLS clubs, and the player's career stage. The probability could shift based on contract negotiations with his current club, competing offers from European leagues, and official announcements from MLS teams or the player's representatives. The key resolution point will be whether a formal transfer agreement is announced before the summer transfer window closes, typically in early September. Market sentiment appears weighted toward an MLS move occurring, though the 36-point gap to other outcomes suggests meaningful uncertainty remains about timing and final destination.
- ›Casemiro's contract status with his current employer and explicit willingness to negotiate MLS terms
- ›Competing transfer interest from European clubs that could offer alternative options during the same window
- ›Official statements or leaked negotiations from specific MLS clubs indicating serious pursuit
- ›Market movement volume and direction: whether recent contract activity reflects informed trading or speculative positioning
- ›Timing alignment between player availability and MLS clubs' roster construction needs before the summer season begins
What moved the line
- May 6Casemiro↑17pp64→81¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Casemiro↑5pp56→61¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Lucas Moura↓5pp21→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Casemiro↑3pp61→64¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.