Who will join MLS in the summer
Leader sits at 21% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Lucas Moura
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Neymar
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$555
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 10, 2026
49 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will join MLS in the summer
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Mohamed Salah
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-MSALAH
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Lucas Moura
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-LMOURA
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Cristiano Ronaldo
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-CRONALDO
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Neymar
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-NEYMAR
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Yann Sommer
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-YSOMMER
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Sergio Ramos
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-SRAMOS
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Manuel Neuer
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-MNEUER
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Luka Modric
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-LMODRIC
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Keylor Navas
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-KNAVAS
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Karim Benzema
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-KBENZEMA
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Harry Kane
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-HKANE
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Francesco Acerbi
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-FACERBI
Who will join MLS in the summer?: Angel Di Maria
KXMLSJOIN-26SEP03-ADIMARIA
Analysis
The market assigns a 91% probability that Casemiro will join Major League Soccer this summer, based on 14 competing contracts on Kalshi. This reflects traders' assessment that the Brazilian midfielder's transfer to MLS is highly likely compared to alternatives like Cristiano Ronaldo (20%), Francesco Acerbi (15%), Angel Di Maria (6%), or Mohamed Salah (4%). The high probability for Casemiro reflects reported negotiations and his age—at 32, he may be at a career stage where an MLS move aligns with his trajectory. Movement in these probabilities would depend on official transfer announcements, contract signings, or credible reporting about negotiations. The resolution hinges on which player formally joins an MLS club before the summer transfer window closes, typically in early August.
- ›Casemiro's contract status with his current club and publicly reported MLS interest from multiple teams
- ›Official announcement or signing by any of the five listed players to an MLS franchise
- ›Transfer market activity and deadline dates across relevant leagues (European and Saudi leagues) that might accelerate or delay moves
- ›Competing interest from other leagues or clubs that could divert any player away from MLS
- ›Reported financial terms and salary cap space available to MLS teams actively pursuing these players
What moved the line
- Jul 17Mohamed Salah↓25pp28→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Cristiano Ronaldo↑12pp11→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Cristiano Ronaldo↓12pp16→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Cristiano Ronaldo↓7pp23→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Sergio Ramos↓5pp12→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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