Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This market on Vivek Ramaswamy's 2028 Republican nomination bid shows extremely thin liquidity with only $18.34 in 24-hour volume against $3,168.99 open interest, creating a wide 6¢ spread and inflated 175.3% implied yield on the Yes side that likely overstates true probability.
Analysis
This market on Vivek Ramaswamy's 2028 Republican nomination bid shows extremely thin liquidity with only $18.34 in 24-hour volume against $3,168.99 open interest, creating a wide 6¢ spread and inflated 175.3% implied yield on the Yes side that likely overstates true probability. The 32¢ price has held flat over seven days despite 625 days to expiration, suggesting limited new information or trader interest in this relatively distant political event. The moderate cliff risk index of 3 and neutral regime indicate stable conditions, though the asymmetric yield profile (175% Yes vs. 19.5% No) reflects classic illiquid market dynamics where small positions can move prices significantly.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Vivek Ramaswamy announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-VRAM yes 100