At least 5 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026
5 or more is priced at 47¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 47¢ bid, 53¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026.
Price history
47¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If at least 5 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
5 or more
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
5 or more 47¢
Range
3¢-47¢
Family volume
$274
Identifier
KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-5
Aug 9, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
47¢
Ask
53¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$274
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$274
Orderbook snapshot
47 / 53¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If at least 5 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-5
Event family
KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$274
Outcomes
4
Highest price
5 or more 47¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.365
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.