Elon Musk · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Elon Musk is priced at 27¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 26¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
Price history
27¢ current
Contract brief
If Elon Musk has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Elon Musk
Rank
#10 of 16
Leader
Donald Trump 52¢
Range
2¢-52¢
Family volume
$797
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EMUS
Sep 21, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
26¢
Ask
33¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
#10 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Family volume
$797
Orderbook snapshot
26 / 33¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Elon Musk has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EMUS
Event family
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$797
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Donald Trump 52¢
Current share
0%
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJT
Barron Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BAR
Eric Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-ETRU
Jared Kushner
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JKUS
Robin Smith
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-RSMI
Eric Adams
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EADA
Ghislaine Maxwell
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-GMAX
Sam Bankman-Fried
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SBF
Larry Householder
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-LHOU
Elon Musk
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EMUS
Julian Assange
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JASS
Torence Hatch
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-THAT
Matt Borges
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-MBOR
Sean Combs
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SCOM
Joseph Maldonado
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JMAL
Hunter Biden
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-HBID
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.