Bitcoin above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET
Before January 2027 is priced at 18¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Will Bitcoin be above $100000.
Price history
18¢ current
−29¢Contract brief
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 02/17/2026 04:00 PM and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before January 2027
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Before January 2027 19¢
Range
2¢-19¢
Family volume
$13K
Identifier
KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC
Jun 7, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Will Bitcoin be above $100000
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$13K
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 02/17/2026 04:00 PM and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC
Event family
Will Bitcoin be above $100000.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before January 2027 19¢
Current share
36%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.