3 source contracts·Kalshi 3·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 208d

Will Satoshi Nakamoto be identified?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 3 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

11%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

11%

3 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$8K

3 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

208 days

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Before January 202719¢$5K Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before October 20268¢$3K Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?: Before 20275¢$0

30-day trend

Aggregate of 3 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 3 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Bitcoin be above $100000” vs “Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Bitcoin be above $100000

2 contracts$8K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Before January 2027

KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC

19¢+1pp$5KK→

Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before October 2026

KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP

8¢−1pp$3KK→

Cluster 2

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?: Before 2027

KXSATOSHIBTCYEAR-27

5¢+1pp$0K→

What moved the line

Jun 4Before January 2027↓5pp28→23¢ · Kalshi
Jun 1Before January 2027↓4pp33→29¢ · Kalshi
Jun 2Before January 2027↓4pp29→25¢ · Kalshi
Jun 6Before January 2027↓4pp21→17¢ · Kalshi
Jun 3Before January 2027↑3pp25→28¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Adjacent prediction questions.

In crypto

What price will Ethereum hit in April?: ↓ 2,00016%Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDTlead 90%What will the Ethereum implied volatility Index hit by April 30?: ↓ 6017%What price will Bitcoin hit in April?: ↓ 65,000lead 76%Bitcoin price on Apr 21, 2026lead 90%What will Bitcoin outperform in April?: NVIDIA (NVDA)23%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.

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