Will Satoshi Nakamoto be identified?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Bitcoin be above $100000” vs “Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Bitcoin be above $100000
Cluster 2
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?: Before 2027
KXSATOSHIBTCYEAR-27
What moved the line
- Jul 21Before January 2027↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Before January 2027↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in crypto
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.