Denzel Washington · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29
Denzel Washington is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 86¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29.
Price history
30¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If Denzel Washington is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Denzel Washington
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
Sadie Sink 66¢
Range
2¢-66¢
Family volume
$319
Identifier
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DEN
Aug 2, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
86¢
Reported volume
$768
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Family volume
$319
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Denzel Washington is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Identifier
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DEN
Event family
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$319
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Sadie Sink 66¢
Current share
0%
Sadie Sink
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-SAD
Hugh Jackman
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HUG
Colman Domingo
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-COL
Glen Powell
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-GLE
Austin Butler
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-AUS
Ayo Edebiri
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-AYO
Denzel Washington
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DEN
Evan Peters
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-EVA
Nicholas Hoult
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-NIC
Harris Dickinson
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HAR
Daniel Radcliffe
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DAN
Joe Keery
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JOE
Michael Fassbender
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-MIC
Tye Sheridan
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-TYE
Hunter Schafer
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HUN
Sophie Turner
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-SOP
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.