Jesse Plemons · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29
Jesse Plemons is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 26¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29.
Price history
35¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If Jesse Plemons is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Jesse Plemons
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
Sadie Sink 92¢
Range
4¢-92¢
Family volume
$8
Identifier
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JES
Aug 9, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
26¢
Reported volume
$332
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Family volume
$8
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 35¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Jesse Plemons is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Identifier
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JES
Event family
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Sadie Sink 92¢
Current share
0%
Sadie Sink
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-SAD
Colman Domingo
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-COL
Patrick Stewart
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-PAT
James McAvoy
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JAM
Harris Dickinson
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HAR
Julia Butters
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JUL
Ayo Edebiri
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-AYO
Adam Driver
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-ADA
Jesse Plemons
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JES
Margaret Qualley
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-MAR
Hunter Schafer
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HUN
Denzel Washington
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DEN
Jacob Elordi
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JAC
Glen Powell
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-GLE
Paul Mescal
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-PAU
Daniel Radcliffe
kalshi · KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DAN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.