Julian Assange · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Julian Assange is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
Price history
28¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If Julian Assange has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Julian Assange
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
Donald Trump 56¢
Range
10¢-56¢
Family volume
$472
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JASS
Aug 6, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
23¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Family volume
$472
Orderbook snapshot
23 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Julian Assange has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JASS
Event family
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$472
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Donald Trump 56¢
Current share
0%
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJT
Eric Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-ETRU
Barron Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BAR
Jared Kushner
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JKUS
Torence Hatch
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-THAT
Sean Combs
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SCOM
Sam Bankman-Fried
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SBF
Bill Hwang
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BHWA
Todd Blanche
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-TBLA
Derek Chauvin
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DCHA
Bob Menendez
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BMEN
Julian Assange
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JASS
Joe Giudice
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JGIU
Brian Cole Jr.
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BCJ
Daniel Hale
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DHAL
Alex Mashinsky
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-AMAS
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 28% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.