Atlanta United FC vs. New England Revolution - More Markets: O/U 4.5
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
7 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
964 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will New England win” vs “Will Gavin Newsom”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New England win
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NE
Cluster 2
Will Gavin Newsom
Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?: Gavin Newsom
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GNEW
Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXNEWSOMRUN-28-27JAN01
Cluster 3
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-MVRA
Cluster 4
Will New York Y vs Atlanta be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series
Analysis
This market reflects a 31% probability that an Atlanta United vs. New England Revolution match will produce five or more goals combined. The probability sits at the lower end of typical scoring ranges for MLS matchups, suggesting traders expect a relatively defensive or low-scoring encounter. Current market positioning shows a modest 4-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi slightly more bullish on high scoring. The outcome depends on team form, injury status, and weather conditions closer to match day. Historical scoring patterns for both clubs this season, along with lineup confirmation in the 24 hours before kickoff, will be the primary factors that resolve remaining uncertainty. The match itself will provide the definitive result.
- ›Atlanta United and New England Revolution's recent scoring trends and defensive records this MLS season will establish baseline expectations for goal output
- ›Confirmed team lineups and injury reports, particularly status of key attacking players, typically emerge 24-48 hours before the match and directly influence scoring likelihood
- ›Weather conditions on match day—wind, rain, temperature—can materially affect ball movement and team playing style, shifting probability toward under or over outcomes
- ›The venue and surface conditions at the match location influence pace of play and shot accuracy
- ›Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between these specific clubs provide context for atypical results relative to league-wide averages
What moved the line
- Jun 20Gavin Newsom↓4pp31→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24New York Y vs Atlanta↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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