Atlanta United FC vs. New England Revolution - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$15K
6 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
964 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will New England win” vs “Will Gavin Newsom”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New England win
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE
Cluster 2
Will Gavin Newsom
Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?: Gavin Newsom
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GNEW
Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXNEWSOMRUN-28-27JAN01
Cluster 3
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-MVRA
Analysis
This 25% probability reflects market expectations that New England will win the 2027 Pro Football Championship. The assessment is based on aggregated pricing across multiple prediction markets, with a modest 3-percentage-point gap between venues suggesting reasonable consensus. The current level reflects New England's position relative to other NFL contenders entering the 2026 season; upward pressure would come from strong team performance, key player acquisitions, or improved divisional standing, while downward pressure would follow injuries, trades, or competitive setbacks. The main resolution driver is the 2027 Pro Football Championship itself, scheduled for early February 2027, though interim regular-season performance and playoff seeding decisions throughout the 2026 season will continuously inform market repricing.
- ›New England's current roster composition and injury status relative to AFC competitors heading into 2026 regular season
- ›Historical win probability for teams with equivalent pre-season metrics and conference positioning
- ›Volume concentration: The highest-volume contract ($13,530 24h) ties to this specific market, while other top contracts reference different sports or matchups, potentially indicating focus or liquidity disparity
- ›Polymarket's 27% average versus Kalshi's 24% spread suggests mild disagreement on valuation; cross-venue arbitrage opportunities or different trader composition may explain the gap
- ›Playoff format structure and conference strength—whether AFC competitiveness increases or decreases relative to NFC teams affects championship path odds
What moved the line
- Jun 20Gavin Newsom↓4pp31→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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