SimpleFunctions

Geno Smith · KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27QBT10

Geno Smith is priced at 26¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 29¢ spread. This outcome ranks #15 of 16 inside KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27QBT10.

Price history

26¢ current

+22¢
0¢25¢
Aug 24, 2026Aug 29, 2026

Contract brief

If Geno Smith finishes top 10 in scoring among quarterbacks for the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Geno Smith

Rank

#15 of 16

Leader

Josh Allen 72¢

Range

6¢-72¢

Family volume

$899

Identifier

KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27QBT10-GSMITH7

Aug 29, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 42m ago

Implied probability

26¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Aug 29, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 42m ago

Bid

11¢

Ask

40¢

Spread

29¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#15 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27QBT10

Closes

Jan 18, 2027

Family volume

$899

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 40¢

Kalshi
29¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.0K
11¢181
2¢230
AskSize
40¢595
91¢2.5K
92¢51
97¢1.0K
98¢150

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Geno Smith finishes top 10 in scoring among quarterbacks for the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 18, 2027

Identifier

KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27QBT10-GSMITH7

SF Signal
SF Index
2077.66
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2077.7%

IY (No)

31.7%

Adj IY

2078%

CRI

8

RV

4224%

VR

12.22

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

2077.7%
31.7%
Adj IY
2078%
8
RV
4224%
VR
12.22
IAR
0.2/h
Overround
6.6%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.