Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1263.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 1.2% on the No side, reflecting the 3¢ price and suggesting significant underpricing of Ossoff's declaration odds relative to the market's risk assessment. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $310 open interest and a wide 5¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation. With 934 days until expiration, the high cliff risk index of 32 and the speculative nature of this declaration market warrant caution—the extreme yield differential may reflect either genuine mispricing or simply the illiquidity penalty on a low-probability event with minimal trading activity.

Resolution rules

If Jon Ossoff is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade