Gavin Newsom · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07
Gavin Newsom is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 28¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07.
Price history
28¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Gavin Newsom
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
Gavin Newsom 28¢
Range
2¢-28¢
Family volume
$4
Identifier
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GNEW
Jun 23, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
28¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$4
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Family volume
$4
Orderbook snapshot
28 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Identifier
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GNEW
Event family
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Gavin Newsom 28¢
Current share
100%
Gavin Newsom
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GNEW
Kamala Harris
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-KHAR
Andy Beshear
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-ABES
Pete Buttigieg
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-PBUT
Jon Ossoff
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-JOSS
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-AOCA
J.B. Pritzker
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-JPRI
Josh Shapiro
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-JSHA
Wes Moore
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-WMOO
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.