Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?

The 18¢ price reflects skepticism that Harris will be first among an unspecified list to declare, with the Yes side offering an aggressive 191% annualized yield despite ultra-thin $4 daily volume and just $2,631 open interest. The 5 Cliff Risk Index suggests potential resolution ambiguity around what constitutes a public declaration, which combined with the 933-day timeframe and minimal liquidity makes this a speculative position vulnerable to interpretation disputes. The recent price stability (16¢ to 17¢ over 7 days) and tight 1¢ spread indicate limited market conviction either direction, though the asymmetric yield structure heavily incentivizes Yes bets.

Resolution rules

If Kamala Harris is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade