SimpleFunctions

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26.

Price history

7¢ current

+5¢
0¢5¢10¢
Jul 10, 2026Jul 12, 2026

Contract brief

If Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper is the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper

Rank

#3 of 16

Leader

Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero 9¢

Range

2¢-9¢

Family volume

$12K

Identifier

KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12BHARPER3

Jul 12, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 27m ago

Implied probability

7¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 12, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 27m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$3K

Family rank

#3 of 16

16 outcomes · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26

Closes

Jul 21, 2026

Family volume

$12K

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 7¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.1K
6¢217
5¢1.4K
3¢2.0K
2¢3.0K
AskSize
7¢3.6K
8¢17K
9¢5.0K
10¢10K
24¢12

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper is the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 21, 2026

Identifier

KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12BHARPER3

SF Signal
SF Index
34593.67
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$12K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero 9¢

Current share

29%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12JCAMINERO13

9¢
$876$669

Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-MMURAKAMI5KSCHWARBER12

8¢
$380$380

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12BHARPER3

6¢
$3K$3K

Kyle Schwarber and Ben Rice

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12BRICE22

6¢
$457$122

Kyle Schwarber and Jac Caglianone

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12JCAGLIANONE14

5¢
$4K$4K0.2

Munetaka Murakami and Junior Caminero

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-MMURAKAMI5JCAMINERO13

5¢
$1K$1K

Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-JCAMINERO13JWALKER18

5¢
$178$178

Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-JCAMINERO13JCAGLIANONE14

5¢
$112$112

Kyle Schwarber and Jordan Walker

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12JWALKER18

5¢
$0$0

Bryce Harper and Jac Caglianone

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-BHARPER3JCAGLIANONE14

4¢
$1$1

Bryce Harper and Junior Caminero

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-BHARPER3JCAMINERO13

4¢
$0$0

Junior Caminero and Ben Rice

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-JCAMINERO13BRICE22

3¢
$1K$703

Munetaka Murakami and Jac Caglianone

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-MMURAKAMI5JCAGLIANONE14

3¢
$47$47

Ben Rice and Jordan Walker

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-BRICE22JWALKER18

2¢
$156$156

Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12WCONTRERAS40

2¢
$0$0

Bryce Harper and Ben Rice

kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-BHARPER3BRICE22

2¢
$0$0

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

69187.3%

IY (No)

281.9%

Adj IY

34594%

CRI

16

Overround

-0.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

69187.3%
281.9%
Adj IY
34594%
16
Overround
-0.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.