Will Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
14 contracts
Top contract
5¢
$4K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will Kyle Schwarber” vs “Will Junior Caminero”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kyle Schwarber
Will Kyle Schwarber and Jac Caglianone be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Kyle Schwarber and Jac Caglianone
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12JCAGLIANONE14
Will Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12BHARPER3
Will Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12JCAMINERO13
Will Kyle Schwarber and Ben Rice be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Kyle Schwarber and Ben Rice
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-KSCHWARBER12BRICE22
Cluster 2
Will Junior Caminero
Will Junior Caminero and Ben Rice be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Junior Caminero and Ben Rice
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-JCAMINERO13BRICE22
Will Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-JCAMINERO13JWALKER18
Will Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-JCAMINERO13JCAGLIANONE14
Cluster 3
Will Munetaka Murakami
Will Munetaka Murakami and Junior Caminero be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Munetaka Murakami and Junior Caminero
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-MMURAKAMI5JCAMINERO13
Will Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-MMURAKAMI5KSCHWARBER12
Cluster 4
Will Bryce Harper and J
Will Bryce Harper and Jac Caglianone be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Bryce Harper and Jac Caglianone
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-BHARPER3JCAGLIANONE14
Will Bryce Harper and Junior Caminero be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Bryce Harper and Junior Caminero
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-BHARPER3JCAMINERO13
Cluster 5
Will Ben Rice
Will Ben Rice and Jac Caglianone be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Ben Rice and Jac Caglianone
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-BRICE22JCAGLIANONE14
Will Ben Rice and Willson Contreras be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Ben Rice and Willson Contreras
KXMLBHRDERBYMATCHUP-26-BRICE22WCONTRERAS40
Cluster 6
Will Jac Caglianone and Jordan Walker be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby
Analysis
This contract asks whether Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone will face each other in the championship round of the 2026 Home Run Derby. At 5%, the market is pricing this as an unlikely but plausible outcome. The low probability reflects that dozens of MLB players are eligible, making any specific two-player pairing statistically improbable. Caminero appears more likely to advance than Caglianone—contracts pairing Caminero with Kyle Schwarber (9¢) and Murakami with Schwarber (8¢) trade higher, suggesting market confidence in Caminero's participation but significant uncertainty about his finals opponent. The Home Run Derby takes place during MLB All-Star Week, typically in early July each year. Resolution depends entirely on the bracket composition, seeding, and actual performance during the 2026 competition.
- ›Junior Caminero's derby matchup contracts trade substantially higher than this pairing (Kyle Schwarber-Caminero at 9¢), indicating the market expects Caminero to reach the finals but with Schwarber or another player as more probable opponents
- ›Caglianone-specific finals contracts trade at or below this level, suggesting limited market confidence in Caglianone advancing past earlier rounds relative to other finalists
- ›The top four competing pairing contracts collectively represent the market's expectations for finals matchups and total only 29¢, reflecting high fragmentation across possible outcomes
- ›Any shifts in participant eligibility (All-Star selections, injuries) between now and July 2026 would directly alter the probability space
- ›Historical Home Run Derby performance data and 2025 performance by these specific players will influence betting as the 2026 competition approaches
What moved the line
- Jul 11Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone↓9pp19→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Bryce Harper and Junior Caminero↑9pp4→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Ben Rice and Jac Caglianone↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero↑5pp4→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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