Logan Paul · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27
Logan Paul is priced at 8¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27.
Price history
8¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If Logan Paul is on the The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Logan Paul
Rank
#13 of 16
Leader
Ariana Grande 50¢
Range
3¢-50¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-LOG
Jun 21, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#13 of 16
16 outcomes · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Logan Paul is on the The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-LOG
Event family
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Ariana Grande 50¢
Current share
0%
Ariana Grande
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-ARI
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-DWA
Harry Styles
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-HAR
Bad Bunny
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-BAD
Jennifer Lawrence
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-JEN
Billie Eilish
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-BIL
Beyoncé
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-BEY
Charli D’Amelio
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-CHA
Kim Kardashian
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-KIM
Leonardo DiCaprio
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-LEO
Christopher Nolan
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-CHR
Kylie Jenner
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-KYL
Logan Paul
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-LOG
Drake
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-DRA
Kendrick Lamar
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-KEN
LeBron James
kalshi · KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-LEB
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.