SimpleFunctions
KalshiDec 31, 2026

Will Marco Rubio be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

This contract is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

3¢
$315K volume
$82K liquidity
8659% of event volume

Event outcomes

13

Family volume

$4K

Best sibling

María Corina Machado 15¢

Ticker

KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-MRUB

Market snapshot

Marco Rubio in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Marco Rubio be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?. The displayed quote is 3¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $315K. In the KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31 family, this outcome ranks #7 of 13 by current quote across 13 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 6:02 AM UTC.

Outcome

Marco Rubio

Family rank

#7 of 13

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Dec 31, 2026

Reported volume

$315K

Family context

13 outcomes · KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31

Quote range

1¢-63¢

Family leader

Nicolás Maduro 63¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 6:02 AM UTC · 0m ago

Venue identifier: KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-MRUB. Family volume: $4K.

Price history

3¢ current

+1¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 19, 2026Apr 23, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

2 / 3¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢10.0K
100¢1.0K
2¢7.3K
2¢434
2¢400
AskSize
3¢10K
3¢500
3¢40
4¢37
9¢11K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Marco Rubio officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-MRUB

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

maker

Score

0.295

Observability

none

Event type

political

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