SimpleFunctions

Nicolás Maduro · KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31

Nicolás Maduro is priced at 77¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 76¢ bid, 77¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 14 inside KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31.

Price history

77¢ current

+2¢
70¢80¢
Jul 9, 2026Aug 8, 2026

Contract brief

If Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Nicolás Maduro

Rank

#1 of 14

Leader

Nicolás Maduro 76¢

Range

1¢-76¢

Family volume

$4K

Identifier

KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-NMAD

Aug 8, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 21m ago

Implied probability

77¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 8, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 21m ago

Bid

76¢

Ask

77¢

Spread

24h volume

$4K

Family rank

#1 of 14

14 outcomes · KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$4K

Orderbook snapshot

76 / 77¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
76¢456
75¢255
74¢200
73¢500
72¢504
AskSize
77¢10
78¢200
81¢5
82¢74
83¢220

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-NMAD

SF Signal
SF Index
788.00
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

79.6%

IY (No)

798.5%

Adj IY

788%

CRI

3

RV

96%

VR

1.07

Regime

neutral

Score

0.485

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

79.6%
798.5%
Adj IY
788%
3
RV
96%
VR
1.07
IAR
0.4/h
8.000
Overround
-0.0%
LAS
0.01

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Bloggeopolitics

Maduro, Venezuela 2026: Regime Stability, Prediction Markets, and the Political Crisis

A deep‑dive outline on Maduro, Venezuela’s 2026 regime stability, and the political crisis—linking prediction market odds, military loyalty, opposition strength, economic collapse, and international pressure to scenario‑based analysis through 2026.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Bloggeopolitics

Venezuela Opposition, Maria Corina Machado, and 2026 Prediction Markets: What Traders Are Really Pricing In

Deep‑dive for political risk analysts and traders on Venezuela’s opposition, María Corina Machado’s strategy, sanctions and diaspora leverage, and what 2026 prediction markets are really pricing in about regime change odds.

Blogmacro

Venezuela Oil Production, PDVSA 2026 Sanctions & Prediction Markets: What the Odds Are Really Pricing In

In-depth analysis of Venezuela oil production and PDVSA through 2026, U.S. sanctions and Chevron licenses, China/Russia oil-for-loans, infrastructure constraints, and how prediction markets are pricing future Venezuelan supply.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.