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Nicolás Maduro · KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31

Nicolás Maduro is priced at 72¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 70¢ bid, 73¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 15 inside KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31.

Price history

72¢ current

+8¢
60¢70¢80¢
May 23, 2026Jun 22, 2026

Contract brief

If Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Nicolás Maduro

Rank

#1 of 15

Leader

Nicolás Maduro 70¢

Range

1¢-70¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-NMAD

Jun 22, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 16m ago

Implied probability

72¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 22, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 16m ago

Bid

70¢

Ask

73¢

Spread

24h volume

$211

Family rank

#1 of 15

15 outcomes · KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

70 / 73¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
70¢5
69¢23
68¢200
67¢144
63¢184
AskSize
73¢559
75¢455
76¢1.0K
77¢2.2K
79¢2.8K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-NMAD

SF Signal
SF Index
211.25
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

85.3%

IY (No)

422.5%

Adj IY

211%

CRI

2

Overround

0.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

85.3%
422.5%
Adj IY
211%
2
Overround
0.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.