SimpleFunctions

Donald Trump · KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31

Donald Trump is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 15 inside KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31.

Price history

2¢ current

0¢5¢
May 25, 2026Jun 23, 2026

Contract brief

If Donald Trump officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Donald Trump

Rank

#6 of 15

Leader

Nicolás Maduro 72¢

Range

1¢-72¢

Family volume

$26K

Identifier

KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-DJT

Jun 23, 2026, 11:54 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

2¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 23, 2026, 11:54 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$21K

Family rank

#6 of 15

15 outcomes · KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$26K

Orderbook snapshot

2 / 3¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢2.1K
100¢1.7K
100¢1.4K
100¢1.3K
2¢8.9K
AskSize
3¢200
3¢125
3¢109
3¢104
3¢36

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Donald Trump officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-DJT

SF Signal
Regime
maker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

maker

Score

0.295

Observability

none

Event type

political

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.