SimpleFunctions
KalshiDec 31, 2026236 days left

Will Donald Trump be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

This contract is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread.

Implied probability

3¢
$301K volume
$131K liquidity
8391% of event volume

Event outcomes

13

Family volume

$4K

Best sibling

María Corina Machado 15¢

Ticker

KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-DJT

Market snapshot

Donald Trump in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Donald Trump be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?. The displayed quote is 3¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $117. In the KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31 family, this outcome ranks #5 of 13 by current quote across 13 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.

Outcome

Donald Trump

Family rank

#5 of 13

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Dec 31, 2026

24h volume

$117

Family context

13 outcomes · KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31

Quote range

1¢-63¢

Family leader

Nicolás Maduro 63¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 10m ago

Venue identifier: KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-DJT. Family volume: $4K.

Price history

3¢ current

25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 11, 2026May 9, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 3¢

Kalshi
0¢ spread
BidSize
3¢200
2¢10K
2¢1.0K
2¢400
2¢524
AskSize
3¢500
3¢28
3¢7
4¢41
5¢1.8K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-DJT

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

4992.0%

IY (No)

4.8%

Adj IY

2496%

CRI

32

Overround

0.2%

Regime

maker

Score

0.295

Observability

none

Event type

political

Full indicator table

4992.0%
4.8%
Adj IY
2496%
32
Overround
0.2%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogpolitics

Trump Foreign Policy 2026: Latin America, Venezuela, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In

How Trump’s 2026 foreign policy toward Latin America and Venezuela is reshaping sanctions, migration, trade, and military risk—and what prediction markets are pricing in.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Bloggeopolitics

US Oil Sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia in 2026: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Shock

A deep-dive into US oil sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia heading into 2026—covering Trump 2.0 policy, secondary sanctions, shadow fleets, global oil balances, European energy security, India/China behavior, and how prediction markets are pricing the next shock.

Bloggeopolitics

Venezuela Opposition, Maria Corina Machado, and 2026 Prediction Markets: What Traders Are Really Pricing In

Deep‑dive for political risk analysts and traders on Venezuela’s opposition, María Corina Machado’s strategy, sanctions and diaspora leverage, and what 2026 prediction markets are really pricing in about regime change odds.

Blogmacro

Venezuela Oil Production, PDVSA 2026 Sanctions & Prediction Markets: What the Odds Are Really Pricing In

In-depth analysis of Venezuela oil production and PDVSA through 2026, U.S. sanctions and Chevron licenses, China/Russia oil-for-loans, infrastructure constraints, and how prediction markets are pricing future Venezuelan supply.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index