Before Nov 1, 2026 · Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before
Before Nov 1, 2026 is priced at 49¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 44¢ bid, 49¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before.
Price history
49¢ current
−18¢Contract brief
If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Nov 1, 2026
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
Before 2027 59¢
Range
1¢-59¢
Family volume
$939
Identifier
KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01
Jun 26, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
44¢
Ask
49¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$172
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Family volume
$939
Orderbook snapshot
44 / 49¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Identifier
KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01
Event family
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$939
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Before 2027 59¢
Current share
18%
Before 2027
kalshi · KXGPT-OPEN-27JAN01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01
Before Aug 1, 2026
kalshi · KXGPT-OPEN-26AUG01
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXGPT-OPEN-26JUL01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
Read 49% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.