Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jun 1, 2026
Leader sits at 75% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jul 31, 2026
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
61¢
Before Jul 15, 2026
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$81K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will OpenAI release GPT
Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jun 30, 2026?: Before Jun 30, 2026
KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN30
Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 3, 2026?: Before Jul 3, 2026
KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL03
Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 31, 2026?: Before Jul 31, 2026
KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL31
Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 10, 2026?: Before Jul 10, 2026
KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL10
Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 15, 2026?: Before Jul 15, 2026
KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL15
Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 7, 2026?: Before Jul 7, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26JUL07
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXGPT-OPEN-27JAN01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26AUG01
Analysis
This probability estimates the chance that OpenAI releases GPT-6 within the next 29 days, by June 1, 2026. The 78% probability suggests significant market confidence in a near-term release, though it notably exceeds the 44% average from Kalshi contracts, indicating possible divergence in market expectations. The main drivers of this elevated probability would be OpenAI's recent development pace and any public statements about release timelines, while factors weighing against it include the typical 18-24 month gap between major GPT versions historically. The most critical catalyst is any official announcement from OpenAI regarding GPT-6 availability or launch timing, which would immediately clarify whether a May or early June release is genuinely planned. Current market signals show mixed confidence given the data from related prediction contracts.
- ›Historical release patterns show approximately 18-24 months between major GPT versions (GPT-4 in March 2023 to GPT-5 timeframe), making a May 2026 release earlier than the typical cycle
- ›The 34-point gap between SimpleFunctions' 78% and Kalshi's aggregated 44% probability suggests potential arbitrage opportunity or different information sets between prediction markets
- ›No public statements from OpenAI leadership as of early May 2026 have confirmed GPT-6 availability within the specified timeframe
- ›The compressed 29-day window makes this a binary event with limited opportunity for gradual probability adjustment based on incremental news
- ›A June 1 deadline occurring on a weekend may affect actual release timing if OpenAI follows typical software release patterns of weekday deployments
What moved the line
- Jun 21Before Jun 30, 2026↓45pp81→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Before Jun 30, 2026↓30pp53→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Before Jul 15, 2026↓23pp89→66¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Before Jul 3, 2026↓21pp35→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Before Jul 31, 2026↑20pp72→92¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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