Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jun 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 96% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
96%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
115 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 84% probability that OpenAI releases GPT-5.6 before July 31, 2026, with the most likely window being early-to-mid July. The pricing reflects strong confidence in a release within the next month, while simultaneously showing very low probability (18%) for GPT-6 before October. The current level likely reflects OpenAI's historical release cadence, any public statements about upcoming model timelines, and the fact that we are already late June. The main upside driver would be confirmation of an imminent announcement; downside pressure could come from delays or pivot toward different product releases. Resolution hinges on whether OpenAI makes an official release announcement by July 31, 2026, with specific attention to the July 10-15 window where contract prices jump notably.
- ›Probability declines sharply as deadlines extend (60% by Jul 10 → 84% by Jul 31), suggesting markets expect a release in early-to-mid July if it occurs at all
- ›GPT-6 contracts trade at only 18% before October, implying minimal near-term expectation for a major generation leap versus incremental versions
- ›High trading volume on the Jul 15 contract ($7,792 in 24h) indicates active disagreement or information flow about timing in the immediate window
- ›The gap between 84% (Jul 31) and 66% (runner-up outcome) suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether this resolves to GPT-5.6 specifically versus a different release category
- ›July 7 contract at only 11% implies markets assign low probability to an extremely imminent release within the next week
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ai tech
Related reading
AI model race heats up with GPT-6 looming and high volume on 'Best AI' contracts
OpenAI is heavily favored to release GPT-6 soon (99¢), but the market for 'Best AI on Dec 31, 2026' shows a tight race, with Anthropic (61¢) leading over OpenAI (22¢). This competitive dynamic is drawing significant volume and trader interest.
AI Race Heats Up: GPT‑6 Release Nears Certainty, But Best AI Title Still Open
OpenAI’s GPT‑6 release before Oct 1 is priced at 87¢, while the ‘Best AI on Dec 31, 2026’ market shows OpenAI leading at 68¢ but with heavy volume on multiple sub‑contracts. The discrepancy between the generic ‘OpenAI’ contract (68¢) and the specific ticker KXLLM1-26DEC31‑OAI (20¢) presents an arbitrage opportunity. Traders should monitor upcoming model benchmarks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.