Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jun 1, 2026
Leader sits at 73% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 66%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 1, 2026
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
66¢
Before Oct 1, 2026
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$664
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
176 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26AUG01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26JUL01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXGPT-OPEN-26JUN01
Analysis
This probability estimates the chance that OpenAI releases GPT-6 within the next 29 days, by June 1, 2026. The 78% probability suggests significant market confidence in a near-term release, though it notably exceeds the 44% average from Kalshi contracts, indicating possible divergence in market expectations. The main drivers of this elevated probability would be OpenAI's recent development pace and any public statements about release timelines, while factors weighing against it include the typical 18-24 month gap between major GPT versions historically. The most critical catalyst is any official announcement from OpenAI regarding GPT-6 availability or launch timing, which would immediately clarify whether a May or early June release is genuinely planned. Current market signals show mixed confidence given the data from related prediction contracts.
- ›Historical release patterns show approximately 18-24 months between major GPT versions (GPT-4 in March 2023 to GPT-5 timeframe), making a May 2026 release earlier than the typical cycle
- ›The 34-point gap between SimpleFunctions' 78% and Kalshi's aggregated 44% probability suggests potential arbitrage opportunity or different information sets between prediction markets
- ›No public statements from OpenAI leadership as of early May 2026 have confirmed GPT-6 availability within the specified timeframe
- ›The compressed 29-day window makes this a binary event with limited opportunity for gradual probability adjustment based on incremental news
- ›A June 1 deadline occurring on a weekend may affect actual release timing if OpenAI follows typical software release patterns of weekday deployments
What moved the line
- May 6Before Aug 1, 2026↓5pp40→35¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Before Sep 1, 2026↓4pp66→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Before Jul 1, 2026↓4pp13→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Before Nov 1, 2026↓4pp78→74¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Before Sep 1, 2026↓3pp63→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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