SimpleFunctions

Sabrina Carpenter · KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDING-30JAN01

Sabrina Carpenter is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDING-30JAN01.

Price history

16¢ current

0¢10¢20¢
May 25, 2026Jun 24, 2026

Contract brief

If Sabrina Carpenter served as a Bridesmaid at the wedding ceremony of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift that occurred before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Sabrina Carpenter

Rank

#11 of 16

Leader

Abigail Anderson (Berard) 82¢

Range

2¢-82¢

Family volume

$4K

Identifier

KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDING-30JAN01-SAB

Jun 25, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 6m ago

Implied probability

16¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 6m ago

Bid

15¢

Ask

16¢

Spread

24h volume

$153

Family rank

#11 of 16

16 outcomes · KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDING-30JAN01

Closes

Jan 1, 2030

Family volume

$4K

Orderbook snapshot

15 / 16¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
15¢1
10¢8
9¢250
8¢400
6¢200
AskSize
16¢983
17¢400
20¢100
21¢400
23¢400

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Sabrina Carpenter served as a Bridesmaid at the wedding ceremony of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift that occurred before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2030

Identifier

KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDING-30JAN01-SAB

SF Signal
SF Index
80.38
Regime
maker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

160.8%

IY (No)

5.0%

Adj IY

80%

CRI

6

Overround

4.6%

Regime

maker

Score

0.295

Observability

none

Event type

cultural

Full indicator table

160.8%
5.0%
Adj IY
80%
6
Overround
4.6%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.