Will Danielle Haim be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1286 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Brittany Mahomes be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 2
Will Danielle Haim be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 3
Will Abigail Anderson (Berard) be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 4
Will Blake Lively be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 5
Will Gigi Hadid be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 6
Will Kylie Kelce be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 7
Will Alana Haim be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 8
Will Zoë Kravitz be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 9
Will Selena Gomez be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 10
Will Emma Stone be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 11
Will Este Haim be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 12
Will Cara Delevingne be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 13
Will Ashley Avignone be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 14
Will Sophie Turner be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 15
Will Lana Del Rey be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 16
Will Sabrina Carpenter be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Danielle Haim will be included in Taylor Swift's wedding party if she marries Travis Kelce. At 34%, the probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether this specific friendship would result in a bridesmaid role. The current level appears influenced by Swift's well-documented close friendships and her history of involving members of her inner circle in major life events, weighed against the large number of potential candidates for bridesmaid positions. The main uncertainty driver is whether a Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift wedding occurs at all, followed by which friends Swift would select if it does. Resolution will depend on either an official wedding announcement and guest list disclosure, or sufficient time passing to make the event unlikely.
- ›Danielle Haim's documented friendship history with Taylor Swift and prior appearances at major life events
- ›The total number of candidates competing for bridesmaid positions versus available slots
- ›Public statements or social media activity indicating closeness between Swift and Haim in 2025-2026
- ›Whether Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift maintain their relationship or announce an engagement
- ›Market probability of a Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding occurring, which appears to be a precondition for this outcome
What moved the line
- Jun 19Este Haim↓26pp60→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Ashley Avignone↑23pp47→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Kylie Kelce↑22pp35→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Este Haim↑21pp34→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Emma Stone↑17pp15→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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