SimpleFunctions
KalshiOct 3, 2026147 days left

Will Shohei Ohtani record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?

This contract is priced at 64¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 54¢ bid, 64¢ ask, 10¢ spread.

Implied probability

64¢
$948 volume
$877 liquidity
416% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$228

Best sibling

Mike Trout 12¢

Ticker

KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-SOHTANI17

Market snapshot

Shohei Ohtani in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Shohei Ohtani record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?. The displayed quote is 64¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $948. In the KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40 family, this outcome ranks #3 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.

Outcome

Shohei Ohtani

Family rank

#3 of 16

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

64¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Oct 3, 2026

Reported volume

$948

Family context

16 outcomes · KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40

Quote range

2¢-83¢

Family leader

Aaron Judge 83¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 9m ago

Venue identifier: KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-SOHTANI17. Family volume: $228.

Price history

64¢ current

7¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 8, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

54 / 64¢

Kalshi
10¢ spread
BidSize
54¢20
53¢45
49¢500
45¢260
42¢188
AskSize
64¢38
68¢500
72¢275
75¢100
85¢100

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Shohei Ohtani records 40+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Oct 3, 2026

Identifier

KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-SOHTANI17

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

211.0%

IY (No)

290.8%

Adj IY

118%

CRI

1

Overround

4.3%

LAS

0.19

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

211.0%
290.8%
Adj IY
118%
1
Overround
4.3%
LAS
0.19

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