Difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms
Republican Party is priced at 22¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors.
Price history
22¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If Republicans hold more state governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Republican Party
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Democratic Party 69¢
Range
10¢-69¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R1
Sep 23, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 54m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Republicans hold more state governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R1
Event family
Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Democratic Party 69¢
Current share
63%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.