US Federal Reserve · KXCBRATEHIKE-27
US Federal Reserve is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 60¢ bid, 61¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 8 inside KXCBRATEHIKE-27.
Price history
61¢ current
+20¢Contract brief
If the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the federal funds rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
US Federal Reserve
Rank
#3 of 8
Leader
Reserve Bank of New Zealand 92¢
Range
15¢-92¢
Family volume
$327
Identifier
KXCBRATEHIKE-27-FED
Jun 25, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
60¢
Ask
61¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$196
Family rank
#3 of 8
8 outcomes · KXCBRATEHIKE-27
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$327
Orderbook snapshot
60 / 61¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the federal funds rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXCBRATEHIKE-27-FED
Event family
KXCBRATEHIKE-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$327
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Reserve Bank of New Zealand 92¢
Current share
60%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
kalshi · KXCBRATEHIKE-27-RBN
Norges Bank
kalshi · KXCBRATEHIKE-27-NOR
US Federal Reserve
kalshi · KXCBRATEHIKE-27-FED
Reserve Bank of Australia
kalshi · KXCBRATEHIKE-27-RBA
Riksbank
kalshi · KXCBRATEHIKE-27-RIK
Bank of Canada
kalshi · KXCBRATEHIKE-27-BOC
Bank of England
kalshi · KXCBRATEHIKE-27-BOE
Swiss National Bank
kalshi · KXCBRATEHIKE-27-SNB
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 61% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.