Will the Bank of Canada raise its target for the overnight rate before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 53% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
53%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$262
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the Reserve Bank
Cluster 2
Will the Bank
Cluster 3
Will the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate before 2027
Cluster 4
Will Norges Bank raise its policy rate before 2027
Will Norges Bank raise its policy rate before 2027?: Norges Bank
KXCBRATEHIKE-27-NOR
Cluster 5
Will the Riksbank raise its policy rate before 2027
Will the Riksbank raise its policy rate before 2027?: Riksbank
KXCBRATEHIKE-27-RIK
Cluster 6
Will the Swiss National Bank raise the SNB policy rate before 2027
Will the Swiss National Bank raise the SNB policy rate before 2027?: Swiss National Bank
KXCBRATEHIKE-27-SNB
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectation that the Bank of Canada will not raise its overnight rate target between now and the end of 2026. At 3%, the market is pricing in a very low likelihood of a rate hike in this timeframe. The current level reflects the Bank of Canada's recent policy stance and economic conditions in Canada. Markets would reassess this probability based on changes in Canadian inflation data, labor market strength, or shifts in the central bank's forward guidance. The next scheduled Bank of Canada rate decision and monetary policy update will be a key catalyst for adjusting expectations, as any hawkish signals or economic data surprises could significantly alter the probability.
- ›Bank of Canada's current policy rate level and stated forward guidance as of May 2026
- ›Canadian inflation data relative to the 2% target and trend direction over the coming months
- ›Canadian employment and labor market indicators that might prompt monetary tightening
- ›Comparative monetary policy stance of other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which influences capital flows and exchange rates
- ›Scheduled Bank of Canada policy announcements and economic projections between now and December 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 19US Federal Reserve↑6pp57→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Norges Bank↑5pp71→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22US Federal Reserve↓3pp63→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24US Federal Reserve↑3pp60→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25US Federal Reserve↓3pp63→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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