Before 2027 · KXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12
Before 2027 is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
19¢ current
−7¢Contract brief
If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$25
Identifier
KXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12-GOV2
Jun 6, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$25
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$25
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12-GOV2
Event family
KXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$25
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Before 2027 14¢
Current share
100%
Before 2027
kalshi · KXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12-GOV2
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.485
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.