South African Reserve Bank Hike more than 25bps at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting
Hike more than 25bps is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside Will the South African Reserve Bank.
Price history
10¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Hike more than 25bps
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
Hike 1-25bps 50¢
Range
1¢-50¢
Family volume
$17
Identifier
KXCBDSA-26JUL23-H25P
Jun 23, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$21
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the South African Reserve Bank
Closes
Jul 23, 2026
Family volume
$17
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 23, 2026
Identifier
KXCBDSA-26JUL23-H25P
Event family
Will the South African Reserve Bank.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$17
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Hike 1-25bps 50¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.