Will the South African Reserve Bank Hike 1-25bps at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting
Leader sits at 50% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Hike 1-25bps
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Maintain current rate
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 23, 2026
30 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the South African Reserve Bank
Will the South African Reserve Bank Maintain current rate at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Maintain current rate
KXCBDSA-26JUL23-HOLD
Will the South African Reserve Bank Hike more than 25bps at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Hike more than 25bps
KXCBDSA-26JUL23-H25P
Will the South African Reserve Bank Hike 1-25bps at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Hike 1-25bps
KXCBDSA-26JUL23-H25
Analysis
Markets currently price a 56% chance that South Africa's Reserve Bank will raise interest rates by 1–25 basis points at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting, with smaller probabilities assigned to maintaining rates (26%) or hiking more than 25 basis points (12%). The relatively high probability of a modest hike reflects ongoing inflation pressures and the central bank's recent policy trajectory, though participants assign meaningful weight to the possibility of a hold. Key drivers include recent consumer price index readings, the rand's exchange rate stability, global rate expectations, and forward guidance from Reserve Bank officials. The MPC meeting date will serve as the primary catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, with the decision announcement triggering settlement across all three outcome contracts.
- ›Recent South African inflation data relative to the Reserve Bank's 3–6% target band will directly inform expectations about rate-setting urgency
- ›The rand's USD exchange rate and capital flow patterns affect currency stability considerations in monetary policy decisions
- ›Global central bank rate cycles, particularly Federal Reserve policy, influence South Africa's rate environment and carry-trade dynamics
- ›Reserve Bank officials' public statements and forward guidance issued before the meeting typically shift probabilities among the three outcomes
- ›The specific meeting date and time are known in advance, making this a high-information-content event with binary resolution
What moved the line
- Jun 17Hike 1-25bps↓6pp55→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Maintain current rate↑3pp29→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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