S&P 500 above 9000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
9,000.01 or above is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside Will the S&P 500.
Price history
3¢ current
Contract brief
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 9000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
9,000.01 or above
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
7,800 to 7,999.99 13¢
Range
1¢-13¢
Family volume
$20K
Identifier
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T9000
Jun 24, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$125K
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the S&P 500
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$20K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 9000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T9000
Event family
Will the S&P 500.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
7,800 to 7,999.99 13¢
Current share
0%
7,800 to 7,999.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7900
8,000 to 8,199.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8100
7,600 to 7,799.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7700
8,200 to 8,399.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8300
7,400 to 7,599.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7500
6,400 to 6,599.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6500
7,000 to 7,199.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7100
8,600 to 8,799.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8700
6,600 to 6,799.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6700
6,800 to 6,999.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6900
9,000.01 or above
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T9000
8,800 to 9,000
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8900
6,000 to 6,199.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6100
6,200 to 6,399.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6300
5,200 to 5,399.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5300
5,000 to 5,199.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5100
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.