Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
12¢ current
−14¢Contract brief
If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$62K
Identifier
KXTRADEDEALCUBA-27-B270101
Sep 22, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 2h ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$62K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$62K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTRADEDEALCUBA-27-B270101
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$62K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027 12¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.