Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 75¢ price reflects strong market conviction in a Trump-Cuba trade deal within 259 days, though the dramatically asymmetric implied yields (66.3% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The 75¢ price reflects strong market conviction in a Trump-Cuba trade deal within 259 days, though the dramatically asymmetric implied yields (66.3% for Yes vs. 299.3% for No) suggest the No side is severely underpriced relative to tail risk. Liquidity is thin at $155.77 open interest with only $52.41 in 24-hour volume, making the 8¢ spread meaningful and creating potential slippage for larger positions. The modest 2-point uptick over seven days (66¢ to 68¢) combined with neutral regime conditions and low cliff risk indicates this is a relatively stable, consensus view rather than a volatile or imminent catalyst play.
Resolution rules
If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRADEDEALCUBA-27-B270101 yes 100