Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before May 1, 2026
Leader sits at 58% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Before Aug 1, 2026
Spread
41pp
contested
24h volume
$50
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before
Analysis
This question asks whether Trump will announce a trade deal specifically with Cuba before May 1, 2026—a deadline that has already passed as of today. The 52% probability reflects market belief that such an announcement may have occurred or is being evaluated as having occurred. Market activity shows traders assign lower probabilities to Cuba deals compared to other potential trade partners like the EU, and recent contract pricing suggests broader trade deal announcements are expected before June 2026. The outcome depends on how "announce" is defined, whether any Trump administration statements regarding Cuba trade have been formally made, and the interpretation of existing agreements or negotiations.
- ›Whether a formal Trump administration announcement about Cuba trade occurred between the question start date and May 1, 2026
- ›How market participants define 'announce' — whether informal statements, press releases, or formal agreements qualify
- ›Comparison to pricing on other potential trade deals (EU at 3¢, general trade deals before June 2026 at 33¢) suggesting Cuba is seen as a lower-probability target
- ›Current geopolitical relationship between the Trump administration and Cuba, which historically has been contentious
- ›Clarification from contract issuers on whether any announcements have been made and how they are classified for resolution purposes
What moved the line
- Jun 18Before Aug 1, 2026↑7pp20→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Before Aug 1, 2026↓3pp27→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Before Aug 1, 2026↓3pp22→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Before Jan 1, 2027↑3pp50→53¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Will Trump visit Pakistan by...last 4% · 7d
- Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...last 3% · 7d
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026last 96% · 7d
- Trump out as President before 2027last 11% · 7d
- Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027last 66% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (58% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
Related reading
High-Conviction Bets on Trump Attending World Cup Final
Donald Trump attending the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final is priced at 88¢, among the highest conviction bets across all topics. This is a proxy for broader political event attendance and has implications for diplomatic optics and market sentiment. The market on his removal from office before 2029 remains low at 31¢.
Trump Pivots on Hormuz Blockade — Market Prices 63% Chance of Lift by June 30
The 'Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30' contract surged 32¢ to 63¢ in a single session, making it the single biggest mover across all Trump-linked markets. This repricing is the direct political consequence of the Iran diplomatic surge — traders now see a high likelihood that the administration will claim a diplomatic win by lifting the blockade in conjunction with a nuclear deal framework.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.