Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before May 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$94
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
101 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXTRADEDEALCUBA-27-B270101
Analysis
This 11% probability reflects market expectations that Trump will announce a trade deal with Cuba before May 1, 2026—roughly one-in-nine odds. The low probability reflects the historical difficulty of U.S.-Cuba trade normalization, ongoing diplomatic tensions, and the short timeframe remaining. The main factors pushing probability higher would be official statements signaling negotiation intent or diplomatic breakthroughs; factors pushing it lower would be Trump administration prioritization of other trade priorities or renewed rhetoric against Cuba policy changes. The resolution depends entirely on whether Trump or his administration publicly announces a trade deal meeting the contract specifications, with no specific scheduled event currently driving market expectations.
- ›Trump administration has not signaled active Cuba trade negotiations as of September 2026, contrasting with public focus on other trade agreements
- ›Historical precedent shows major U.S.-Cuba trade policy shifts require sustained diplomatic effort and Congressional coordination, typically taking months to years
- ›The contract resolves based on a formal announcement by Trump or his team; informal negotiations or policy discussions would not trigger resolution
- ›Roughly 7.5 months remain until the May 1, 2026 deadline, limiting the window for negotiation, announcement, and market recognition
- ›Domestic political considerations regarding Cuban-American constituencies and Congress's trade policy role create structural barriers to rapid agreement
Recently closed in trump
- Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332last 4% · 10d
- Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Kevin Warsh in Sep 2026last 90% · 11d
- Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026last 40% · 11d
- Will Trump say "Hungary / Hungarian" before Oct 1, 2026last 91% · 11d
- Who will Trump talk to in Aprillast 3% · 20d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (13% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
Related reading
Trump Markets: Impeachment Odds at 65¢, Administration Turnover in Focus
Trump continues to be a major market driver with bets on his removal, apologies, and cabinet departures. The impeachment market (65¢) suggests traders see a real possibility of proceedings. The administration's turnover is also a focus.
Trump administration and Press Secretary speculation dominate political markets
The market for the next White House Press Secretary is the single highest-volume market in the entire dataset, with Maria Bartiromo leading at 14¢. Other Trump-focused markets on resignation and impeachment are also active, signaling intense trader interest in the political landscape.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.