Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $4.00 in August 2026
Leader sits at 84% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 71%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $2.00
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
71¢
Above $2.00
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$63
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
174 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $4.00 in October 2026?: Above $4.00
KXH100MS-26OCT-4.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.50 in July 2027?: Above $3.50
KXH100MS-27JUL-3.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.25 in September 2026?: Above $3.25
KXH100MS-26SEP-3.250
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.75 in January 2027?: Above $3.75
KXH100MS-27JAN-3.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.75 in February 2027?: Above $3.75
KXH100MS-27FEB-3.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.50 in February 2027?: Above $3.50
KXH100MS-27FEB-3.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.25 in February 2027?: Above $3.25
KXH100MS-27FEB-3.250
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.00 in February 2027?: Above $2.00
KXH100MS-27FEB-2.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.75 in April 2027?: Above $2.75
KXH100MS-27APR-2.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.50 in October 2026?: Above $3.50
KXH100MS-26OCT-3.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.25 in October 2026?: Above $2.25
KXH100MS-26OCT-2.250
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.75 in December 2026?: Above $3.75
KXH100MS-26DEC-3.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.50 in October 2026?: Above $2.50
KXH100MS-26OCT-2.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.50 in December 2026?: Above $3.50
KXH100MS-26DEC-3.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.00 in September 2026?: Above $2.00
KXH100MS-26SEP-2.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $4.00 in May 2027?: Above $4.00
KXH100MS-27MAY-4.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.50 in November 2026?: Above $3.50
KXH100MS-26NOV-3.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.75 in November 2026?: Above $3.75
KXH100MS-26NOV-3.750
Analysis
This measure indicates a 79% probability that NVIDIA's H100 GPU compute price will average above $2.00 per unit in August 2026, with much lower confidence (4%) in prices exceeding $4.00 that month. The high probability of staying above $2.00 reflects expectations that demand and supply dynamics will sustain baseline pricing, though the steep probability cliff at higher thresholds suggests limited consensus on significant price appreciation. Key drivers include H100 supply-demand balance, competition from newer GPU architectures, and enterprise purchasing patterns over the next six weeks. August 2026 represents the near-term resolution point; longer-dated contracts (October, December) trade at lower probabilities for higher price thresholds, suggesting traders expect gradual price stabilization or decline rather than sustained escalation.
- ›NVIDIA H100 spot market pricing as of late June 2026 and typical pricing ranges for enterprise GPU compute rental
- ›Announced GPU supply releases and competitive products entering the market through August 2026
- ›Historical volatility of enterprise GPU pricing and seasonal demand patterns for cloud compute
- ›Correlation between H100 price movements and broader AI infrastructure spending cycles
- ›Contract structure shows 75-percentage-point probability gap between $2.00 and $4.00 thresholds, indicating market skepticism of rapid price acceleration
What moved the line
- Jul 5Above $2.00↑24pp48→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Above $3.50↓18pp24→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Above $3.75↓14pp18→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Above $3.25↓13pp24→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Above $3.50↓12pp21→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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