Will OpenAI / ChatGPT run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$232
20 contracts
Closes
Feb 15, 2027
189 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jeep run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Jeep run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Jeep
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-JEEP
Cluster 2
Will SpaceX run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will SpaceX run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: SpaceX
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-SPAC
Cluster 3
Will Allstate run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Allstate run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Allstate
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-ALLS
Cluster 4
Will Spotify run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Spotify run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Spotify
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-SPOT
Cluster 5
Will Anthropic / Claude run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Anthropic / Claude run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Anthropic / Claude
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-CLAU
Cluster 6
Will Nike run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Nike run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Nike
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-NIKE
Cluster 7
Will Amazon Prime run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Amazon Prime run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Amazon Prime
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-AMAZ
Cluster 8
Will Disney+ run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Disney+ run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Disney+
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-DISN
Cluster 9
Will Grok run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Grok run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Grok
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-GROK
Cluster 10
Will Base44 / Wix run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Base44 / Wix run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Base44 / Wix
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-BASE
Cluster 11
Will Coinbase run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Coinbase run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Coinbase
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-COIN
Cluster 12
Will DoorDash run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will DoorDash run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: DoorDash
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-DOOR
Cluster 13
Will Gemini run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Gemini run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Gemini
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-GEMI
Cluster 14
Will Hims & Hers run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Hims & Hers run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Hims & Hers
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-HIMS
Cluster 15
Will Liquid Death run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Liquid Death run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Liquid Death
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-LIOU
Cluster 16
Will Oakley run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Oakley run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Oakley
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-OAKL
Cluster 17
Will OpenAI / ChatGPT run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will OpenAI / ChatGPT run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: OpenAI / ChatGPT
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-OPEN
Cluster 18
Will Paramount+ run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Paramount+ run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Paramount+
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-PARA
Cluster 19
Will Temu run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Temu run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Temu
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-TEMU
Cluster 20
Will Zyn run an ad during the Big Game 2027
Will Zyn run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Zyn
KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-ZYN
Analysis
This contract estimates a 53% probability that OpenAI will purchase advertising during Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether the company will pursue mass-market television advertising at this scale, weighing both OpenAI's rapid growth and mainstream adoption of ChatGPT against its historically limited consumer advertising spend. Key factors include OpenAI's current marketing strategy and budget allocation, competitive pressure from other AI companies seeking visibility, the cost and ROI calculus of Super Bowl ads (typically $5-7 million for 30 seconds), and broader corporate spending patterns during economic conditions in early 2027. The contract will resolve definitively when the Super Bowl airs on February 2, 2027, with ad buys typically confirmed weeks in advance. Comparable tech companies show mixed patterns: while Nike and Disney+ show higher probabilities, SpaceX trades lower, suggesting markets view OpenAI's ad strategy as moderately likely but uncertain.
- ›OpenAI's marketing spending and brand strategy decisions between June 2026 and January 2027, including announcements about paid advertising priorities
- ›Pricing and availability of Super Bowl LXI ad slots, and whether OpenAI publicly commits to or rejects the opportunity
- ›Competitive dynamics with other AI-focused companies (Microsoft, Google, Anthropic) and their advertising plans
- ›Economic conditions and OpenAI's financial performance in H2 2026 affecting discretionary marketing budgets
- ›Historical pattern of OpenAI's consumer-facing marketing campaigns versus enterprise-focused positioning
What moved the line
- Aug 8OpenAI / ChatGPT↓51pp82→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8DoorDash↓48pp55→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Nike↓39pp44→5¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Grok↓36pp50→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Anthropic / Claude↓33pp63→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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