Gemini 3.5 Release Odds Crash 10 Points, Anthropic Soars
Google's Gemini 3.5 release by May 31 saw a 10-point collapse to 81¢, while Anthropic cemented its lead at 79¢ as the best AI model provider. Google's own 'best model' contract rose 8 points counterintuitively, suggesting a complex market.
Key takeaways
- 01
Google's Gemini 3.5 release by May 31 saw a 10-point collapse to 81¢, while Anthropic cemented its lead at 79¢ as the best AI model provider.
- 02
Google's own 'best model' contract rose 8 points counterintuitively, suggesting a complex market.
- 03
The AI model landscape underwent a significant repricing today.
Full analysis
The AI model landscape underwent a significant repricing today. The Polymarket contract 'Gemini 3.5 released by __?: May 31 (0x009cb79c526eff4af8) crashed 10 points from 91¢ to 81¢, on 76,990 volume. This suggests traders doubt Google will ship its next-generation model on time, likely due to internal delays or competitive pressure. Meanwhile, the 'best AI model end of May' contracts show a bifurcated picture: Anthropic (0x5072d0bf27763754b7) leads at 79¢ (modest -7), while Google (0x2ae22e1fd29651ed6f) actually surged 8 points to 21¢. This divergence — lower Gemini release odds but higher Google model quality odds — may reflect traders betting on Google's existing models (e.g., Gemini 2.5 or other variants) improving without requiring the 3.5 launch. OpenAI sits at a lowly 1¢, reinforcing the sense that the company has lost its AI leadership narrative. Kalshi's 'Best AI in May 2026' (KXLLM1-26MAY16-ANTH) at 99¢ confirms Anthropic as the consensus frontrunner. The coming weeks will be key for any official announcements from Google, Anthropic, or OpenAI that could shift these probabilities further.
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