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April 25, 2026·Bitcoin & Crypto·Older · 3mo ago

Bitcoin Bears Take Control — $80k April Target Drops 8 Cents to 41¢

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Bitcoin's April price targets are moving decisively bearish: the $80k upside target fell 8 cents to 41¢ while the $75k downside contract crossed 50¢ probability at 51¢ (+5¢). With IBIT down 0.25% today, the market is narrowing its April range expectation firmly below $80k.

Key takeaways

01
Bitcoin's April price targets are moving decisively bearish: the $80k upside target fell 8 cents to 41¢ while the $75k downside contract crossed 50¢ probability at 51¢ (+5¢).
02
With IBIT down 0.25% today, the market is narrowing its April range expectation firmly below $80k.
03
Bitcoin prediction markets are sending a consistent bearish signal today.

Full analysis

Bitcoin prediction markets are sending a consistent bearish signal today. The highest-volume directional move is the '↑ $80,000 in April' contract (0x06a804e8bd1a539829) falling 8 cents to 41¢ on $369k volume — the largest single-market move by volume in the Bitcoin category. This is no longer a majority probability outcome for April.

Simultaneously, the '↓ $75,000 in April' contract (0xa05c869fcd6edef0b6) crossed the 50¢ threshold at 51¢ (+5¢) — meaning the market now assigns majority probability to Bitcoin touching $75k or below at some point this month. The '↑ $82,500 in April' contract (0x8a26b66b6bdb6b12af) dropped 5 cents to 13¢ on $56k volume, confirming the bearish skew.

The IBIT Bitcoin ETF is down 0.25% today at $44.05, consistent with this pricing. Looking further out, the 'When will Bitcoin hit $150k?: by June 30, 2026' contract (0xa0f4c4924ea1a8b410) sits at just 1¢ on extraordinary $5.8M in volume — virtually certain not to happen by June.

For year-end positioning, the Kalshi 'Bitcoin above $100k by May 1' (KXBTCMAX100-26-APR) is at 1¢, and 'above $100k by June 1' (KXBTCMAX100-26-MAY) is at 8¢. The '$100k by July 1' (KXBTCMAX100-26-JUNE) sits at 19¢. This gives a clear probability curve: 1% by May, 8% by June, 19% by July.

The Kalshi BTC daily price markets (KXBTCD series) cluster around the $75-78k range for April 25 settlement, with $77k+ strikes at 77¢ and $77k+ at 51¢, suggesting spot Bitcoin is currently trading in that corridor.

Traders long Bitcoin should consider hedging via the '↓ $75,000 in April' contract at 51¢. Bears may find the '↑ $80,000 in April' at 41¢ offers further downside if spot continues weakening.