MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Odds Spike: May 31 Contract Hits 56¢, June 30 at 78¢

Bitcoin markets are digesting a significant narrative shift as MicroStrategy-related prediction contracts saw heavy volume and upward price action. The 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026' contract on Polymarket rose 3¢ to 56¢ on 489,307 volume, making it the most actively traded Bitcoin market today. The longer-dated 'by June 30, 2026' contract jumped 4¢ to 78¢ on 170k volume, while the 'by December 31, 2026' contract is at 90¢ (+1¢) on 74k volume. The upward-sloping probability curve — 56% for May, 78% for June, 90% for year-end — implies traders expect an eventual sale with high confidence. This is particularly significant because MicroStrategy holds over 200,000 BTC, and any sale could create substantial downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. The spot market is already reacting: the IBIT Bitcoin ETF fell -1.33% to $45.11, and the ETHE Ethereum ETF dropped -0.92% to $18.32. The 'Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?' contract trades at only 2¢, confirming the bearish short-term outlook. Related tail-risk contracts include 'Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?' at 8¢ and 'Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?' at 48¢ (-4¢). The monthly BTC trimmed mean contracts are also active: above $85k at 29%, above $90k at 6%, above $100k by June 1 at just 2¢.