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April 24, 2026·Fed Rate Decisions·Older · 1mo ago

Fed Chair Race: Kevin Warsh Locked In at 94¢ — Rate Cut Odds Shifting on Oil Shock

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Kevin Warsh is the near-certain next Fed Chair at 94¢ on Polymarket with $781k volume. More importantly, the zero rate cuts in 2026 probability jumped +4¢ to 41¢ today, reflecting the inflationary impact of the oil spike. The April meeting 'no change' market remains at 99¢ but June and beyond are now more uncertain.

Key takeaways

01
Kevin Warsh is the near-certain next Fed Chair at 94¢ on Polymarket with $781k volume.
02
More importantly, the zero rate cuts in 2026 probability jumped +4¢ to 41¢ today, reflecting the inflationary impact of the oil spike.
03
The April meeting 'no change' market remains at 99¢ but June and beyond are now more uncertain.

Full analysis

The Federal Reserve policy outlook is being reshaped in real time by the Iran-driven oil spike. Today's key development: the 'zero rate cuts in 2026' market (0xd4e77ba6f29fc09350) gained +4¢ to 41¢ — a meaningful shift that reflects traders repricing inflation risk from the oil surge. Meanwhile, the April meeting outcome is locked: KXFEDDECISION-26APR on Kalshi shows 99¢ for 0 bps change with $647k volume, and Polymarket's 'No change' (0x36e8ca24d2a13435f5) is at 99¢ with $1.28M volume. The Fed Chair race is essentially over: Kevin Warsh leads at 94¢ (0x23a2be40bc8f742922, $781k volume), with Judy Shelton at 1¢ and Scott Bessent at 0¢. Kalshi's KXFEDCHAIRCONFIRM-KW confirms Warsh at 94¢. The June meeting 'no change' probability (0xde04b189b3f19eaccd) sits at 93¢. On the rate cut count distribution: 1 cut (28¢), 2 cuts (17¢, -2¢), 3 cuts (8¢, -1¢), 0 cuts (41¢, +4¢) — the distribution is shifting hawkish. The Kevin Warsh confirmation timeline matters: the 'confirmed by May 1' market is at just 1¢ but 'by May 15' is at 29¢. KXFED-26APR-T3.50 on Kalshi (rates above 3.5% after April) is at 99¢. For traders: the 0-cuts scenario gaining ground is the key trade — if confirmed by further oil/inflation data, longer-duration bonds could underperform. The 'Fed rate cut by April meeting' market on Polymarket is at 0¢, confirming the hawkish near-term read.