Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.94% on Jul 31, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract asks whether the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 3.94% by July 31, 2026—roughly three weeks from now. The 97% probability reflects market expectations that yields will remain above this threshold through month-end. The 2-year yield moves primarily on Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data. With the Fed's current stance and recent economic reports, markets are pricing in a very high likelihood that Treasury yields stay in their recent trading range or higher. Key incoming catalysts include the July jobs report (scheduled for early August, after resolution) and any inflation readings in the final weeks of July. The contract's tight clustering of other outcome prices—with 83¢ on yields above 3.99%—suggests moderate uncertainty about higher levels, but strong conviction that yields won't fall below 3.94%.

• ›Current 2-year yields trading near or above 4.0% as of mid-July 2026, making a drop below 3.94% in three weeks less likely absent significant economic deterioration
• ›Federal Reserve guidance and inflation expectations are the primary drivers; any signals of rate cuts would pressure yields downward, while inflation surprises upward would support higher yields
• ›The contract shows a sharp drop-off in probability at 3.99% and above levels (83¢), indicating the market sees most risk in a narrow range near current rates rather than a dramatic move in either direction
• ›Only 3 weeks remain until settlement, limiting the time window for substantial yield shifts from policy or data surprises
• ›Trading volume remains relatively light on most outcome contracts, suggesting limited institutional hedging or directional positioning

What moved the line

• Jul 84.05% or above↑28pp60→88¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 84% or above↑17pp73→90¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 84.1% or above↑12pp71→83¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 94.2% or above↑6pp41→47¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 84.25% or above↑5pp30→35¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds