Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 31, 2026
Leader sits at 93% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.05% or above
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
4% or above
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
22 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T3.99
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.25% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.24
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.05% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.04
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.2% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.19
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.3% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.29
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.4% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.39
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.35% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.34
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.09% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.1% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.09
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.15% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.14
Analysis
This reflects a 97% probability that the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield will close at or above 4.04% on July 31, 2026, based on trading in nine related contracts. Markets are pricing in a very high likelihood of yields staying in a relatively narrow band above 4.04% through month-end. The primary drivers are Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data releases scheduled over the next three weeks. Key uncertainty centers on whether the Fed maintains its current rate stance and how incoming economic data—particularly the July jobs report and consumer inflation figures—influences yield movements. The contract structure shows declining confidence in yields reaching substantially higher levels (4.14%, 4.29%, or above), suggesting traders see limited upside pressure but significant confidence in the sub-4.04% scenario being unlikely. Resolution comes with the Treasury yield fixings on July 31, 2026.
- ›Current 5-year yield is approximately 4.04%, making this near-the-money; a 97% probability suggests minimal margin above current levels is required
- ›July employment report (early August release) and Consumer Price Index data will provide inflation signals that directly influence Treasury yields during the pricing period
- ›Federal Reserve communications and any policy shift signals between now and July 31 could move yields; no major rate decision is scheduled in this window
- ›Contracts show 78% probability of yields exceeding 4.14%, indicating markets assign only 19% cumulative probability to the 4.04-4.14% range
- ›Volume concentration in the 4.04-4.09% contracts versus lower volumes above 4.14% suggests conviction about the upper bound of likely outcomes
What moved the line
- Jul 84.15% or above↑30pp49→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.1% or above↑26pp67→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84% or above↑22pp68→90¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.25% or above↑22pp32→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 94.3% or above↑15pp32→47¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 49% · 0d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 17% · 0d
- Will 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.45%last 3% · 8d
- Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.95%last 14% · 8d
- Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.10%last 10% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Fed Stay-or-Cut: Market Hawks Win as Rate Cut Hopes Fade
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in July (79¢ for no hike) with the market pricing zero rate cuts for all of 2026 at 76¢. Core CPI expectations remain sticky at 77% probability of rising more than 0.1% in June, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative. Traders should watch the KXFEDDECISION series for July and September meetings.
Fed Set to Hold Steady as Rate Cut Hopes Fade for 2026
The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to hold rates at the July 2026 meeting (84¢ probability), and the market sees zero rate cuts through December as the base case at 75¢. This hawkish posture supports the dollar and bond yields while challenging risk assets.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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