Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 31, 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.15% or above
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
4.05% or above
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
2 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.55% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.54
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.45% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.44
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.35% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.34
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.3% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.29
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.5% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.49
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.4% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.39
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.15% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.14
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.25% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.24
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.05% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.04
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.85% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.84
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.8% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.79
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.75% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.74
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.2% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.19
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.09% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.1% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.09
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4% or above
KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T3.99
Analysis
This reflects a 97% probability that the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield will close at or above 4.04% on July 31, 2026, based on trading in nine related contracts. Markets are pricing in a very high likelihood of yields staying in a relatively narrow band above 4.04% through month-end. The primary drivers are Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data releases scheduled over the next three weeks. Key uncertainty centers on whether the Fed maintains its current rate stance and how incoming economic data—particularly the July jobs report and consumer inflation figures—influences yield movements. The contract structure shows declining confidence in yields reaching substantially higher levels (4.14%, 4.29%, or above), suggesting traders see limited upside pressure but significant confidence in the sub-4.04% scenario being unlikely. Resolution comes with the Treasury yield fixings on July 31, 2026.
- ›Current 5-year yield is approximately 4.04%, making this near-the-money; a 97% probability suggests minimal margin above current levels is required
- ›July employment report (early August release) and Consumer Price Index data will provide inflation signals that directly influence Treasury yields during the pricing period
- ›Federal Reserve communications and any policy shift signals between now and July 31 could move yields; no major rate decision is scheduled in this window
- ›Contracts show 78% probability of yields exceeding 4.14%, indicating markets assign only 19% cumulative probability to the 4.04-4.14% range
- ›Volume concentration in the 4.04-4.09% contracts versus lower volumes above 4.14% suggests conviction about the upper bound of likely outcomes
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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