Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Jul 31, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets are pricing a 95% probability that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.89% by July 31, 2026—roughly three weeks away. The tight timeframe means the yield needs only modest movement from current levels to resolve affirmatively. The leading contract shows similar confidence (95%) for a 4.79% threshold, while progressively lower probabilities appear at higher yield levels (31% at 5.04%, 18% at 5.14%), indicating traders expect yields to remain in a narrow band rather than spike significantly. The main drivers are Fed policy expectations, inflation data releases, and broader Treasury market demand through month-end. The July employment report (expected mid-month) and any Fed communications could shift sentiment, but the high probability reflects limited volatility expected in the remaining trading days before expiration.

• ›The 30Y Treasury yield would need to fall below 4.89% to resolve negatively—a move of roughly 15-20 basis points downward from levels typically implied by the contract pricing structure
• ›Only three weeks remain until July 31 settlement, limiting time for large yield moves driven by macroeconomic shocks
• ›Kalshi trading volume is moderate ($40 on the specific 4.89% contract, $366 across higher thresholds), suggesting specialized rather than retail-driven positioning
• ›The probability ladder shows geometric decay above 4.89% (95% → 84% → 31% → 18%), indicating markets assign declining odds to higher yield outcomes but don't price them as impossible
• ›Mid-July employment and inflation data releases represent the primary scheduled events that could materially shift 30-year yield expectations before expiration

What moved the line

• Jul 84.85% or above↑24pp67→91¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 84.9% or above↑23pp62→85¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 84.95% or above↑19pp64→83¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 95.05% or above↑14pp35→49¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 85.1% or above↑14pp22→36¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds